Arisha Medical Clinic

Финансовая модель · Март 2026
AEDUSD
📅 Период: Y1-Y10
TOTAL INVESTMENT
6.6M
CapEx + WC + Pre-op
5-YEAR IRR (XIRR)
12.4%
vs 12% WACC
10-YEAR IRR (XIRR)
34.5%
Long-term return
PAYBACK PERIOD
4.0 лет
Benchmark: 3-5 лет
PROJECT IRR w/ EXIT (5Y)
49.4%
Asset-level, sale at 8× EBITDA
PROJECT MOIC (5Y @8×)
5.55×
Asset-level (not investor)
INVESTOR NET GAIN (Y5)
5.59M
30% stake · capital 6.57M AED (CapEx incl. WC)
Y1-Y10 EBITDA MARGIN
18.5%
Operating efficiency
LTV : CAC
7.7×
Target ≥ 3×
OPERATIONAL BREAKEVEN
Month 9 (Y1)
EBITDA-positive from
Y1-Y10 REVENUE
35.1M
Selected period
Y1-Y10 NET PROFIT
8.2M
After tax & D&A
Инвестиционный кейс устойчив. 5-year IRR 12.4% близок к 12% WACC, а upside формируется за счет exit scenario. Payback около 4 лет.

Структура инвестиций (CapEx)

6,572,160 AED

Рост пациентской базы

Источники пациентов

Утилизация и ёмкость

FTE @ util>75%

Бенчмарк: Arisha vs рынок Dubai

📐 Сценарии: 620 sqm vs 450 sqm

Метрика620 sqm (Base)450 sqm (Compact)Δ Разница
Total CapEx6.57M5.56M-1.02M (−15%)
Clinic Area620 sqm450 sqm−170 sqm (−27%)
Functional Area440.2 sqm292.5 sqm−147.7 sqm (−34%)
Functional Space Share71%65%−6pp
CapEx / sqm10.6K AED12.3K AED+16%
Annual Rent @ 1,320 AED/sqm818K AED594K AED−27%
Compact scenario rows above compare workbook assumptions and capex only. Revenue, IRR, and payback need a dedicated 450 sqm recalc.

Доходность и прибыльность (10 лет)

Структура расходов Y1-Y10

Месячная P&L динамика (Y1)

Breakeven: M7

Operating Waterfall: Revenue → EBITDA (Y1-Y10)

Revenue Mix Y1-Y10

by department

Средний чек по департаменту Y1-Y10

Revenue by Product Y1-Y10

workbook price list

Product Economics (Y1-Y10)

ProductDepartmentMixUnitsAvg PriceRevenue

Эволюция Revenue Mix по департаментам (10 лет)

Department Economics (Y5)

DepartmentMixAvg PriceVisitsRevenueEst. EBITDA

Actual vs Plan

Детализация P&L по годам

ПоказательY1Y2Y3Y5Y7Y10

📅 Monthly Drill-down (Year 1)

Monthly data shown for Year 1. Y2/Y3 estimated via linear distribution.

Patient Acquisition Model (Y5 anchor)

Model-derived

Patient Engine (Y5 anchor)

Acquisition Economics (10Y)

Patient Engine

Patient Engine Trend (Y1-Y10)

Full history

Channel Economics (Y5 anchor)

ChannelPatientsShareVisitsRevenue ProxyCostEfficiency

Cumulative & Annual Cash Flow

DCF Waterfall: Cash Flows → NPV (12% WACC)

Funding Bridge

Runway Snapshot

Exit Valuation (8× EBITDA)

IRR по Exit Multiple

Сценарии Exit

YearEBITDAEVNetIRR

Investor Model Assumptions

Model Mode

Investor Return Comparison

Compare

Founder Return Comparison

Investor Cash Flow Timeline

Equity vs Revenue Share

MetricEquity ModelRevenue ShareWinner

CAPEX Breakdown

6.57M AED

Net Book Value

Depreciation Schedule (Stacked)

Amortization Table

AssetCostLifeY1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Y8Y9Y10

Revenue Stress Test → EBITDA (Y5 anchor)

OPEX Stress Test → EBITDA (Y5 anchor)

Two-Way Heatmap: Revenue × OPEX (Y5 anchor)

Staffing Scenarios Impact (Y5 anchor)

Sensitivity Summary (Y5 anchor)

Tornado: Driver Impact on 10Y NPV

Scenario Library & Compare

NameRevProvider CompOPEXFixed StaffWACCExitNPV10Y IRRPaybackActions

🎲 Monte Carlo Simulation

Press to simulate
NPV Distribution (left) · 5Y IRR Distribution (right) · Red = below threshold
MEDIUM

Concentration Risk

Revenue-sharing @ 40% — крупнейший cost.

Стандартный рыночный rate, low switching cost
MEDIUM

Utilization Ceiling

Model saturates at 84% by Y7+. Space limits FTE.

Рост после Y7 только через price increases
LOW

Y1 Cash Requirement

Y1 EBITDA: -322K. Total need = 6.57M.

Working capital buffer 337K is already included in the capex plan.
LOW

Dubai Market

Summer seasonality -33% traffic.

Модель учитывает seasonality

Integrity Checks

Financial Ratios: Y1 vs Y5 vs Y10

Ratio Trends (10 лет)

Assumptions & Definitions

Benchmark Sources

Template Compliance Check

Import Audit Trail

Excel Reconciliation Checklist

📊
Drop Excel here
Arisha_Enhanced_V3.xlsx