TOTAL INVESTMENT
6.6M
CapEx + WC + Pre-op
5-YEAR IRR (XIRR)
12.4%
vs 12% WACC
10-YEAR IRR (XIRR)
34.5%
Long-term return
PAYBACK PERIOD
4.0 лет
Benchmark: 3-5 лет
PROJECT IRR w/ EXIT (5Y)
49.4%
Asset-level, sale at 8× EBITDA
PROJECT MOIC (5Y @8×)
5.55×
Asset-level (not investor)
INVESTOR NET GAIN (Y5)
5.59M
30% stake · capital 6.57M AED (CapEx incl. WC)
Y1-Y10 EBITDA MARGIN
18.5%
Operating efficiency
LTV : CAC
7.7×
Target ≥ 3×
OPERATIONAL BREAKEVEN
Month 9 (Y1)
EBITDA-positive from
Y1-Y10 REVENUE
35.1M
Selected period
Y1-Y10 NET PROFIT
8.2M
After tax & D&A
Структура инвестиций (CapEx)
6,572,160 AEDРост пациентской базы
Источники пациентов
Утилизация и ёмкость
FTE @ util>75%Бенчмарк: Arisha vs рынок Dubai
📐 Сценарии: 620 sqm vs 450 sqm
| Метрика | 620 sqm (Base) | 450 sqm (Compact) | Δ Разница |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total CapEx | 6.57M | 5.56M | -1.02M (−15%) |
| Clinic Area | 620 sqm | 450 sqm | −170 sqm (−27%) |
| Functional Area | 440.2 sqm | 292.5 sqm | −147.7 sqm (−34%) |
| Functional Space Share | 71% | 65% | −6pp |
| CapEx / sqm | 10.6K AED | 12.3K AED | +16% |
| Annual Rent @ 1,320 AED/sqm | 818K AED | 594K AED | −27% |
Compact scenario rows above compare workbook assumptions and capex only. Revenue, IRR, and payback need a dedicated 450 sqm recalc.
Доходность и прибыльность (10 лет)
Структура расходов Y1-Y10
Месячная P&L динамика (Y1)
Breakeven: M7Operating Waterfall: Revenue → EBITDA (Y1-Y10)
Revenue Mix Y1-Y10
by departmentСредний чек по департаменту Y1-Y10
Revenue by Product Y1-Y10
workbook price listProduct Economics (Y1-Y10)
| Product | Department | Mix | Units | Avg Price | Revenue |
|---|
Эволюция Revenue Mix по департаментам (10 лет)
Department Economics (Y5)
| Department | Mix | Avg Price | Visits | Revenue | Est. EBITDA |
|---|
Actual vs Plan
Детализация P&L по годам
| Показатель | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y5 | Y7 | Y10 |
|---|
📅 Monthly Drill-down (Year 1)
Monthly data shown for Year 1. Y2/Y3 estimated via linear distribution.
Patient Acquisition Model (Y5 anchor)
Model-derivedPatient Engine (Y5 anchor)
Acquisition Economics (10Y)
Patient Engine
Patient Engine Trend (Y1-Y10)
Patient Base Bridge (10Y)
opening → closingPatient Base Detail
selected period| Year | Opening Base | New Paid | New Organic | Retained | Churned | Closing Base | Retention % | Churn % |
|---|
Channel Economics (Y5 anchor)
| Channel | Patients | Share | Visits | Revenue Proxy | Cost | Efficiency |
|---|
Cumulative & Annual Cash Flow
DCF Waterfall: Cash Flows → NPV (12% WACC)
Funding Bridge
Runway Snapshot
Exit Valuation (8× EBITDA)
IRR по Exit Multiple
Сценарии Exit
| Year | EBITDA | EV | Net | IRR |
|---|
Investor Model Assumptions
Model Mode
Model-specific inputs
Investor Return Comparison
CompareFounder Return Comparison
Investor Cash Flow Timeline
Equity vs Revenue Share
| Metric | Equity Model | Revenue Share | Winner |
|---|
CAPEX Breakdown
6.57M AEDNet Book Value
Depreciation Schedule (Stacked)
Amortization Table
| Asset | Cost | Life | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|
Revenue Stress Test → EBITDA (Y5 anchor)
OPEX Stress Test → EBITDA (Y5 anchor)
Two-Way Heatmap: Revenue × OPEX (Y5 anchor)
Staffing Scenarios Impact (Y5 anchor)
Sensitivity Summary (Y5 anchor)
Tornado: Driver Impact on 10Y NPV
Scenario Library & Compare
| Name | Rev | Provider Comp | OPEX | Fixed Staff | WACC | Exit | NPV | 10Y IRR | Payback | Actions |
|---|
🎲 Monte Carlo Simulation
NPV Distribution (left) · 5Y IRR Distribution (right) · Red = below threshold
MEDIUM
Concentration Risk
Revenue-sharing @ 40% — крупнейший cost.
Стандартный рыночный rate, low switching cost
MEDIUM
Utilization Ceiling
Model saturates at 84% by Y7+. Space limits FTE.
Рост после Y7 только через price increases
LOW
Y1 Cash Requirement
Y1 EBITDA: -322K. Total need = 6.57M.
Working capital buffer 337K is already included in the capex plan.
LOW
Dubai Market
Summer seasonality -33% traffic.
Модель учитывает seasonality